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IT Telecomm Systems Integration Big Data Analytics Deep Projection CEM

Many companies are offering products and services without a deep and precise customer perspective. Customer focus will be the core issue of big data analytics and customer experience management. IT Projects are to be based on open standards and viable reliable platforms processing both structured and unstructured data.

Re-marketing by Re-naming, learning by doing trial and error methodology was practiced by many big IT Companies in many clients. Customer satisfaction and investment protection suffered, confidence lowered.

Business ethics is the foundation of sustainable innovation. Companies like IBM SAP ORACLE ACCENTURE violated the very basic rules of service oriented open architectures, big data analytics incorporating both structured and unstructured data and focusing on customer satisfaction service level aggreements.

Real time reliable non-redundant non-dirty data is technically the basis for right decisions Second the proper data modeling ensuring the movement of minimum amount of just in time relevant clean data just in place is a necessity.

Third the simplicity of 3 level Architecture with Data Base Applications and User Interface, visulaization, miniaturizationlast but not least the customer acceptance of performance metrics.

Resource Management, the optimum use of time material and human resources organized on three pillars of finance sales and production business lines are the main carrying columns on the premise or IT Infrastructure database strategy Applications strategy and highly visulaized User interfaces. Integration of IT Strategy with Metadata and Business strategy is vital for long term survival.


The Residual value of systems is best describing the system behaviour At the end of the day all market players are trying to maximize their profit by letting the time resources and human resource work for them. How to implement the best practices in IT Industry especially in utility energy oil gas banks and telecommunications infrastructure by efficient data modeling and adapting or matching and synchronising data modeling, work flows and process flows.


I want to present my article on Telecomm Network Planning in 1999, which is still valid strategy as of today. We need to find out open standards, timeless or time independent simple big data solutions on linkedIn.


The pragmatic system integration solution from IT and Telecomm Perspective, efficient data modeling, data quality and big data analytics and mobility solutions will determine the future of IT and Telecom Industry:

New Universal Evolution of Telecommunications Network Planning:

Fixed-Mobile Convergence with Application and Service Divergence


Prof.Dr.Dipl.Ing.Mehmet Erdas





The unification of both packet- and circuit switched world leading to the convergence of fixed and mobile networks together with the database planning, necessitated the concomitant introduction of new applications and services in order to protect the previous telecommunications investments of operators or investors, who are urgently looking for the protection of their investments. This paper gives an overview of how to optimize the network planning problem by maximizing benefits while minimizing the risks of the investors-suppliers-and operators, under the light of latest developments in the area of network planning like the self-similarity of traffic, dynamic routing and topological constraints , summarizing the scope and the methodology of network planning and network management.


The next generation of access, switching, and transmission networks, as well as the end-user IT-equipment will be much more faster and intelligent, much more self-contained-and actively self-regulating, adapting themselves through their own iterative adjustment and decision making mechanisms to their own conditions or adaptive goal-settings. .


The New Network Planning and Network Management Teams has to act at the speed of light or at least at the speed of thought, in order to be able to keep pace with the accelerated rate of change of the market demand (All-IP, IPsec, DiffServ QoS),as the main driving force of the technological innovation.The new stored program controlled complex procedures with fully open interfaces will make the active networks soon a market reality leading to the convergence of the fixed-and mobile networks. The All-IP (Ipv4 replaced soon by Ipv6) convergence of different protocol stacks are to be achieved by the unification of circuit-and packet switched technologies through queueing theory and stochastic discrete event simulation.


The new unified network architectures enabling gigabits or terabits of throughput with underlying topological configurations and dynamic routing policies will in themselves be offered as a totally new revenue generating business, service or product. The world of ISPs or ASPs will be too complicated facing the question of survival against rapidly changing challenging market conditions. The Operators –Suppliers-and Investors of future telecommunications products or services will definitely need the network as an intelligent unique product in itself offered by the Network Planners or Consultants, because ISPs /ASPs are just about to loose their own control, or having to outsource , at least losing soon their degrees of freedom and/or competence in decision making to the network planners of the universally converged, but with services and applications totally diverged next generation networks.









Network Planning Problem means in the broadest sense how to meet the customer, business and infrastructure specific conflicting competitive objectives under efficient resource-and capacity utilization constraints over time.

The term „network planning“ has a broad scope of coverage, implying fundamentally both the strategical -and the operational network planning processes, which can be summarized as the radio network planning process tuned to the fixed-and mobile network planning processes , short-medium-and long-term resource allocation problem , capacity assignment and routing problem together with the integrated network data base planning,considering the network evolution, network compatibility and the integration of OEM-products into existing networks, network planning standardization, security and diffserv capability of a variety of middleware applications developed independently of underlying network structures, but as a feedback influence increasing the complexity of network traffic load, assuming a unified future network described by ist network database. The treatment of telecommunications network economics against the network availibility,network redundancy (availibility of redundant paths meeting overload and burstiness in peak hours ), network security and network database back-up and recovery concepts should be the main emphasis of an integrated network planning. Shortly defined, the integrated network planning process covers the orderly , time-dependent efficient deployment and management of computer-and data communications facilities. The new service product Network Planning is used in both the operational ( referring to existing telecommunication networks) and the strategical sense( identifying future technology trends driven by market forces ).The evolutionary network planning aims at the overall technological-economical-and financial integration of new network components features and technologies into existing networks.

For the development of network planning and integration tools, the well-known classical O.R. algorithms of advanced.dynamic integer.programming and graph theory, queueing theory and combinatorial optimization, branch and bound methods, penalty methods, and Discrete Event Simulation.are the most commonly used network planning and optimization algorithms..(1),(2),(3),.(14)


The Network planning problem has to be understood as an optimization problem, stated under the optimization criteria of cost effectiveness, high reliability- availibility-flexibility, extendability of networks and network components to minimize the overall network costs (reduce equipment) with a modular subnetworks structure. The general planning factors to be considered are mainly the technological factors, economical factors, financial factors, business factors, organizational factors,and environmental factors. Depending upon the level of planning detail required , for the definition of the network components, network modules (HW-and SW), various system and network architectures, network services, network topology ,different routing strategies specified according to the underlying network topology can be used. Finally based on the assumed traffic load sharing and traffic channelizing mode, quite different problem formulations of network planning problem can be presented.


The most important network features can be counted as the statistical multiplexing of loads, the existence of a large number of heterogenous subnetworks, their modular interconnection, and value-added services, the future growth prospects of existing networks The end –to –end delay, cell or packet loss, blocking probabilities and the calculation of the link budgets and protocol overheads which are to be taken into account together with the quality of service parameters. The Bandwidth availibility on demand is another bottleneck, that has to be considered in the formulation of network planning-and optimization problem.The economies of scale, finiteness of resources, standardisation and growth prospects of new technologies, modular extendability, hardware and software variety and emergence of new solutions should also considered as objective variables or constraints in the formulation of heterogenous networks` planning problem.



The evolution of networks over time is a key aspect of network planning and network optimization.The new network engineering requests may come due to a new product or technology or new customer (market-driven or technology-driven) expectations. The definition of new services, business priorities, reuse of existing infrastructure in migration are important to identify the network design strategy.

The optimized routing, colocation of network elements are the other factors influencing the cost-revenue-profit picture.


Aggregation and/or Decomposition into smaller Problems:


Methodologically,the network planning and optimization problem has to be divided into a number of smaller, easily manageable subproblems. One set of subproblems might be defined relying on the existing network structure, network topology, the priority rules for services in proportion to their shares in revenues, and the routing strategy. Another set of subproblems might be defined as end-user terminal equipment design (intelligence of end-user equipment), access technologies design, the assessment of switching technologies and finally the transmission systems.(5) The Markov Chains, queueing theory, general birth-death processes and renewal theory can be used to unify the totally different world of circuit switching and packet switching. The Erlang-k distribution and priority queueing models as M/G/m queues can be used efficiently to simulate the traffic load as Poisson distributed interarrival times and service times; defining their ratio as the utilization factor. (6),(8).(9)


Applications such as video and voice telephony are delay sensitive and will require differentiated services (QoS) with prioritization introduced into the queueing models.Analysis of the accuracy of bursty traffic models together with the response and recovery times and load sharing/load balancing in case of overload are an essential part of performance analysis of telecommunication networks Traffic models should match closely to real data in order to obtain reasonable tracking of the critical network performance bottlenecks..


Generically, one could optimize the cost-revenue-profit triple by minimizing the cost of expenditures for equipment and operations, and maximize revenues by introducing value-added intelligent services through intelligent networking (add a separate control layer to achieve service,network and end-user equipment independence) and doing all this over time as technology, user requirements and the economic factors change. The decomposition of network planning problem into smaller optimization problems has to be done for the sake of simplicity, consistence, uniqueness and solvability.


There are various types of classification approaches for different types of network planning, such as fixed and radio network planning, administrative planning, fundamental technical planning to develop plans for network management, switching and routing, addressing, signalling, operations, provisioning and maintenance. Engineering plans are detailed and immediate plans. Another type of planning can be accomplished on the basis of network components selection, like the number of base stations, local exchanges, toll exchanges, interexchange transmission, loop plant, signalling network and customer premises equipment, LAN, WAN,MAN, Routers, Bridges, Gateways etc. For GSM/GPRS/EDGE/UMTS network planning, the main classification is usually the radio network planning and fixed network planning besides of course the packet switching and the circuit switching. According to different services, another classification could be made as POTS, ISDN, SMDS or FR services, Packet, Video, Cellular Telephone, E-Mail, Remote Login, File Transfer, Image Transfer, Voice Connections, World Wide Web.

According to timing or time coverage of plans, the long-term plans(5-20 years), medium-term plans (2-5 years), and short-term plans (1-2 years) could be done using iterative dynamic programming or simulation scenario techniques by changing the planning assumptions. ( 7)



Performance Evaluation of High Speed Packet Switching Networks


The Packet-switching network was developed during the 1960s.The idea behind a packet-switching network was to create a network of dedicated leased lines whose sole function would be to transport digital data traffic. At the source, data would be divided into groups of bits called packets. An actual packet has two parts: Header and the actual information field or payload. The System Performance measures in a packet switched network are the interarrival times, service times, queue length, transit time, waiting time, and server idle time.(2)

The Header contains information about the originating point, packet`s destination, its priority and its error codes. The payload is the group of information bits that has to be transported over the network.algorithms running in the switching nodes read a packet`s destination address and forward the packet over the next successive link on its way to its destination.


The great advantage of statistical multiplexing in packet switching technology , that is sharing of transmission linesby the bursty data traffic between many users,lowered the cost of transmitting data over leased lines and combined the inherent bursty data traffic into aggregate flows that could be accommodated economically by long lasting leased-line connections. Today packet-switching is used overall in general user networks such as Internet as well as in specialized applications such as in establishing the connections in telephone networks through the Common Channel Signalling System 7.


With the introduction of ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode) technology, the share of packet-switching in the total world communications bandwith increased drastically. ATM combined broadband(high-speed) communications and services of voice- data-and video traffic in an integrated manner (ISDN). Some important advantages of ATM technology against STM(Synchronous Transfer Mode):

No rigidly structured hierarchy anymore needed

No time slot assignment (Mapping) problem anymore

No need for separate switches at each data rate by multirate switching as a combination of 64kbps switching building blocks.Bursty data traffic and services instead of fixed-demand services possible

During Network Planning the individual network components are to be planned and integrated into the existing GSM network and Internet. This covers the interconnecting of network equipment according to the network planning, configuration of system parameters for each network component, customer specific setup of the network management system tests with real applications and real traffic simulations.


The scope of overall end-to-end network planning problem should be divided into smaller subnetwork planning problems as the

-Radio Network Planning(RNP)

-Fixed network Planning ( PSTN,B- ISDN..)

-Mobile Network Planning (GSM/GPRS/EDGE/UMTS)

-Database Planning (Backup-and Recovery (14)



Planning a High Quality, High Performance Network Architecture

The right network architecture should be tailored depending upon the relative market choices of companies; even within a single market the architecture and technology are to be considered as moving targets, under which we should look for optimum network solutions(maximizing benefits while minimizing risks). Mobile operators are building networks only for their own use, without any real traffic simulations. The large variety of subnetworks and services necessitates a dedicated and specialized planning. The diversity of hardware and software complicates network management and planning. Therefore the choice of HW and SW and the rapid growth in networks makes it compulsory to install higher capacity systems accompanied by proper network planning.


Mathematical Programming for Network Planning


An objective function and associated set of constraints is called a mathematical program, consisting of decision variables and surplus or slack variables to convert the constraint inequalities into equations which are then to be solved by matrix operations of inversion and multiplication. The set of all constraints determines the feasible solution space. The Objective function might be cost, performance or reliability metrics. Network planning problem formulated as a mathematical programming, might have a single unique globally optimal solution or many locally optimal solutions. A locally optimal solution is only optimal for a limited portion of the feasible solution space. Sometimes heuristic algorithms, which use intuitive procedures to find out optimal solutions, might be useful to achieve global optimal solutions starting with local optimal solutions. The canonical problem formulation for network planning and queueing theory used to formulate the telecommunications network design and the solution technique , called simplex algorithm, can be found in Ref.(1).p.14-41.


The Network Optimization is indispensable because of shifts in subscriber-and application distribution and their traffic behaviour, changes in the subscriber mobility profile, subscriber growth, unbalanced market-driven regional network growth and limitations of frequency resources on air-interface.


Routing Problem and Discrete Event Simulation


ISPs or ASPs face a challenge in provisioning of network resources because of the rapid growth of bursty internet traffic and wide fluctuations of the traffic patterns. The dynamic routing should be used to prevent congestions and application performance as a valuable traffic engineering tool. The deployment of load-sensitive routing is however difficult due to overheads imposed by link-state update propagation, path selection and signalling. Through simulation experiments of one week or one-month duration, packet flows could be traced to differentiate between long-lived and short-lived flows to improve the performance of the links and to achieve the routing stability. The existing routing protocols OSPF, BGP, RIP etc. are optimizing in one way, leaving the longer paths underutilized.


A middle approach between physical experimentation and statistical analysis which is often used, is simulation technique. Since simulations are performed with software , it is easy to change or test the model assumptions, or change requests. The usual type of simulation of a network is called discrete event simulation. The”discrete events” are occurrences such as packets being transmitted , a buffer receiving a packet, or a call being switched. Simulations can be run to trace transient behaviour of networks,which occur over a very short period of time as a result of some event. The behaviour of networks over long time periods and the self-similarity of internet traffic, that means the steady-state behaviour of networks could be observed and simulated to examine various planning assumptions, whether they represent the reality.of traffic as it is. Discrete event simulation is stochastic in nature, because basic inputs like packet arrivals and call placements are to be generated randomly by using pseudorandom number generators.as software products.(3)


The self-similar traffic modelling is going to replace the poisson modelling of network traffic, because of long-range dependence in wide-area networks. The simplest models with long-range dependence are self-similar processes, which are characterized by hyperbolically –decaying autocorrelation functions. The long-range dependence of self-similar processes can be charactereized by a single parameter, called the Hurst parameter., which can be estimated using Whittle`s procedure (11)


Transient queueing analysis is essential for network planners to understand the temporal behaviour of their networks. The sojourn time performance of a network node has to be studied under realistic traffic environment. For that purpose , a network node has to be modeled as a finite quasi-birth-death process(instead of simplest M/M/1queueing model) with level dependent transitions, which are used to model a controlled or prioritized queueing system, where both the arrival and the service processes are to be regulated based on the instantenous buffer occupancy level, because the size of the buffer is always finite in reality.and the arriving cells are lost when the buffer is full. This approach allows the incorporation of more sophisticated and accurate traffic models than the previous 2/3 State Markov Models.of network traffic. The impact of input traffic characteristics and the effect of various simplifying assumptions like infinite buffer approximations, the effect of statistical multiplexing and the controlling effect of preemptive cell discarding (to assure the QoS) on the sojourn time behaviour of the system has to be studied further in depth.to explain the nodal congestion in networks planning. Realistic networks of today have large buffer size, but complex and bursty input traffic makes the infinite buffer assumption invalid. Buffering together with the statistical multiplexing can be used to increase the redundancy, reliability and availibility of networks to avoid congestions and to provide the QoS parameters in case of overload or highly bursty traffic input with long duration.(12, 13)


Trends in Network Planning:

For Transmission capacity services: TDM SONET/SDH WDM/DWDM-First step to the future –optical switching at 10-100 Terabits/sec.

For Access Networks services: TDM CATV,DSL,802.11,LMDS Wireless-Mobile-IP Convergence of fixed-and mob.IP,100Mbit Ethernet is the right next step,but fiber optics is the future transmission medium in telecommunications.

For Fixed Voice Networks services: CS VoIP using H.323 Replace with SIP and MGCP Session Initiation and Mediagateway Protocol

For Mobile Voice and Data Networks :.VoGSM SMS WAP GPRS EDGE UMTS or 802.11 IP-based new Value-Added Services, like IP-based Intelligent networking and new middleware applications development just by separating the control plane and data plane.

New IP-Services Best Effort DiffServQoS IPsec.for VPN Security WDM-Switching replacing ATM ; as a moving target between assured delay and assured bandwith use MPLS for traffic engineering, just putting the bandwidth where the traffic is or putting the traffic where bandwidth is.

Overall Trends and Conclusions: Fiber is the only future proof foundation for all network services; SIP and MGCP will be the key to voice/data convergence; mobile phone operators will become wireless Internet access providers and last but not least: Internet is able to provide QoS and Security without Layer2 VCs. With the realization of UMTS, the cellular networks of the future might well be dimensioned for the dominant type of traffic which is expected to be mobile data, rather than voice. This would lead to network consolidation of IP, ATM and Frame Relay.through network consolidating layers enabling cost savings in infrastructure.


FMC: Fixed-Mobile Convergence:


The heterogenous networks evolution and the mobility of Internet requires a unique OAM

Concept for common billing, operation and maintenance of diversified network services.

FMC can be realized by establishing a combined switching centre enabling the service and

support of both the mobile and the fixed customers through the same exchange. This might

be a hardware or software solution or a combination of both depending upon the existing

network infrastructure. Global access to personalized services are independent of access

methodology, underlying network and delivery method. It should be mentioned that the access

network is not so expensive to build out and to upgrade. Convergence will first happen in enterprise networks when voice is moved from traditional voice VPN (PABX networks) to data-VPN and thereafter into long distance IP-based intelligent VPNs. In the medium-term, the emerging technologies and standards will facilitate service and network convergence to an IP based network with fixed and mobile access increasing complexity with ever growing data throughput rates, bandwidth allocation and network configuration management problems. The optimization criteria for such a converged network can be counted as the end-to-end targeted quality of service levels, throughput rates, link capacity utilization, the minimized overall cost and delay levels with differentiated security allocations for different applications and the interoperability or compatibility of hardware and software units without posing any difficulties for combined implementation.



Modified overall network optimization problem formulation for a unified network planning process


The overall planning problem for such a converged network could be be formulated as the minimization of end-to-end total line costs (call set up, volume-and time dependant charging accounting for the cross-product of total connection time and volume of data transferred end-to-end packet-and circuit switched connections), subject to a given traffic load sharing model, given the chosen coding schemes for radio network coverage, given the specified node locations, inter-node and intra-node peak circuit- switched -and packet- switched traffic load sharing mechanisms, adjusted or matched by general birth-date stochastic queueing models delivering the required minimum link budgets and buffer sizes for smoothing out the burstiness of packet data traffic, over the decision variables of underlying network topology and routing policy, yielding the total channel or link capacities adapted by channel allocation choices (channelized, unchannelized, fractional, setting DE for FR or CLP for ATM or labeling for ATM LSR ) relying on the DiffServ or prioritized QoS-using static,virtual, dynamic routing mechanisms, without leaving any longer paths underutilized, if congestion in the shortest paths occurs), satisfying the allowed overall access-switching-transmission end-user equipment delays, reliability-redundancy-and availibility constraints, all being discrete(non-continuous) and iterated .over time covering the network planning period. The outputs of such a planning model will be measured or scaled in multiple functional HW-or SW units, bits -and seconds, which are to be converted into monetary units using a market-driven sales, qualified cost- and pricing strategy allowing for the investment protection of investors-suppliers-and operators triple defined as survival value chain, such that none of the market-players will be threatened in survival.

This overall problem formulation for the optimization of combined radio-and fixed network planning process could be extended for incorporating the involved database planning, database security, back-up and recovery processes.








1-Thomas G. Robertazzi:Planning Telecommunication Networks , 1999, IEEE Communications Society, Ch.1-2-3 pp 2-36


2-Susan L. Solomon Simulation of Waiting Line Systems, 1983 Prentice Hall, pp 11-16


3-Jerry Banks,John S.Carson II, Barry L.Nelson :Discrete-Event System Simulation, 1999 Prentice –Hall

pp 92-96


4- J. Ioannidis, D. Duchamp and G.Q. Maguire Jr.: IP-based Protocols for Mobile Internetworking.In Proc. SIGCOMM 91, ACM, Zurich, Sept. 1991, pp. 235-245.


5- Pflug,G Stochastische Modelle in der Informatik, Stuttgart, 1986, p.85 and p.117


6-Daigle, J..N.: Queueing Theory for Telecommunications, Addison-Wesley, 1992 pp- 6-13, Ch.3-4


7-Gupta V.P., „What is Network Planning“ IEEE Communications Magazine, Vol.23, Nr.10, Oct. 1985, pp 10-16


8-Kleinrock. L. Queueing Systems Vol 1-2, New York , 1975

9-Kleinrock, L; Queueing Systems-Problems and Solutions-, New York, 1989


10- Heinanen, J.“Futureproof network planning strategies“ International Conference in London, 24-25 May, 2000, organized by Vision in Business.


11-Garrett.M and Willinger.W, : Analysis, Modelling and Generation of Self-Similar VBR Video Traffic, in: Proceedings of SIGCOMM`94 , pp. 269-280, 1994


12- Kobayashi, H., Ren Q.: Nonstationary behaviour of statistical multiplexing for multiple types of traffic, in : Proceedings of the 26 Annual Conference on Information Sciences and Systems, Princeton University Press, Princeton NJ, March 1992


13-Kant K., Introduction to Computer System Performance Evaluation, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1992.


14-Kumar V.,Hsu M. Recovery Mechanisms in Database Systems, Prentice-Hall, New jersey, 1998,

pp. 56-68, 259-291, 661-697


Prof.Dr. Mehmet Erdaş Berlin 16.10.2010
Angela Merkel bir Papazın kızı, Bayern CSU Başkanı Horst Seehofer de iki kadınla aynı anda yaşıyor. Bize de açıkça diyorlar ki bize benzeyeceksiniz, ya Hristiyan değerlerini kabul edeceksiniz, ya da Almanya’ yı terk edeceksiniz. Thilo Sarrazin den sonra, Alman hükümetinin en yetkili ağızlarından çok kültürlülük hedefini askıya alması ve açıkca asimilasyon hedefini ortaya koyması, eğitimli eğitimsiz tüm yabancılarda şok etkisi ve korku yarattı. Bu mesaja Hristiyan olmayan herkes büyük tepki gösterdi. Almanya da bulunan Yahudi Merkez Komitesi Başkanı Stephan Kramer dahi huzursuzluk ve korku duyduğunu açıkladı.
Dünya kamuoyunu karşısına almak pahasına, ilk seçimlerde iktidardan düşeceklerini bilen CDU/CSU Partilerinin liderleri, hristiyanlık propagandası yapan popülizm bayrağı açtılar. Bu işin sonu iyi gelmez. İnsanlık tarihi yeniden haçlı zihniyetinin hortlatılmasıyla başlayan din savaşları ile dolu değil mi? Hristiyanlığın önder ve öncü kültür (Leitkultur) olduğunu, Müslüman Yahudi ve Ateist Buddhist herkese tüm insanlığa kabul ettirmek iddiasında olan Alman politikacıların kendileri bile bunun ne anlama geldiğini felsefi açıdan dünya kamuoyuna açıklamaktan acizdirler. Bugüne kadar hiçbir Alman politikacı, ‘ Leitkultur’ dan ne kastettiğini tam olarak açıklayabilmiş değildir. Buna rağmen Angela Merkel ve Horst Seehofer, balıkları bile güldürecek mizahi ve popülist açıklamaları, ‘ Hristiyanlığın insan (ve Tanrı) kavramını kabul etmeyenler Almanya’ da boşuna, yanlış yerde, yanlış ülkede duruyor’ açıklamalarıyla iyice gülünç duruma düştüler.
Euro krizi, bankaları kurtarayım derken sebep oldukları kapatılması imkansız bütçe açıkları, İşsizlik sorunu, yanlış entegrasyon politikaları…. nedeniyle umutsuzluk, çaresizlik ve korkuya kapılan ve gelecek perspektifleri için hayli kötümser olan Alman halkına din üzerinden, hristiyan propagandası yaparak umut vermeye çalışıyorlar. Bunu yaparken, daha ikinci dünya savaşında Hristiyan olanların karşılıklı olarak ‘ Tanrı bizimle-Gott mit uns!- diye bağırararak birbirlerini öldürdüklerini ne çabuk unutuyorlar? Bunun neresi öncü ‘leitkultur’ olacak; çarmıha gerilmiş çivilenmiş bir insan tasviri ile korku yaymak insanlığa öncü diye kabul ettirebilir mi? İnanç sömürüsü Almanya da artık sökmez. Almanlar sorgulamayı, doğruyu yanlıştan ayırmayı Kant, Marxs, Hegel, Schelling, Goethe, Lessing…. sayesinde öğrenmişlerdir. Alman idealizmi ile İslam aynı felsefi temele dayanmaktadır. Kiliselere üye olup gönüllü aidat ödeyenlerin sayısı da hızla azalmakta, Alman toplumu artık kilise nikâhına dahi önem vermeden, dini nikah dışında yaşamaktadır. Evlenmeleri yasak ‘ Zölibat’ olan, Homoseksüel papazların, din eğitimi verdikleri subyan çocuklara kilise okullarında nasıl cinsel tecavüzde bulundukları, Amerika’ dan tutun da Almanya İngiltere Fransa…. tüm hristiyanlık dünyasına olan inancı ve güveni sarsmıştır. Artık kimse kilise öğretilerine sahip çıkmamaktadır. Bir taraftan Şeriat denilen ve daha adil işleyen İslam hukukunu reddederken, diğer taraftan kilisenin Kanonik ortaçağ hukukunu savunmaya kalkmak ve öncü kültür iddiasında bulunmak çılgınlık ve çaresizlik ifadesi değil de nedir? Aklım mantığım ve vicdanım, tüm bilgi ve tecrübe birikimim, fizik doktorası yapmış Papaz kızı olan bir hanımın, hem de Alman Bundeskanzler i olarak Alman Anayasasının, Almanya da yaşayan herkes için –din dil ırk köken ayırımı yapmaksızın- insan hakları, sosyal haklar ve eşitlik ilkelerine sadakat yemini ettikten sonra, hala hristiyan propagandası yapmasına karşı direnmemi emrediyor. Kaç günden beri Almanca, İngilizce ve Türkçe olarak dünya kamuoyuna sesleniyorum ve Almanya da, Thilo Sarrazin ile iyice ortaya çıkan, çok kültürlülüğe, özellikle Müslüman olan Türk ve Araplara karşı tırmandırılan, tehlikeli ırkçı yönelişe karşı uyarıyorum. Uyanık olup vaktinde tepki gösterilmez ise, birleşik Almanya’ da Yahudilerin yerine Türkler ve Araplar konularak yeniden Nazi dönemi hortlatılabilir. Tarih, insanlık bir türlü ders alamadığı için hep tekrarlanmaktadır.
Tüm dünyaya ilan ediyorum; benim aklım mantığım vicdanım bilgi birikimim ve tecrübem, Angela Merkel ve Horst Seehofer’ in içi boş ‘ Leitkultur-öncü önder lider Kültür’ iddialarını kabullenmeme engel olmaktadır. Bu durumda Angela Merkel ve Horst Seehofer bana açıkca diyorlar ki, sen Almanya da yanlış yerde yanlış ülkedesin!
Alman hükümetinin en tepesinde bulunup da, bu insanlık dışı, mantık ve ahlak dışı bu sözleri edebildikleri için kendilerini şiddetle kınıyorum ve en kısa zamanda Almanya yı terk edeceğimizi kendilerine hatırlatmak istiyorum. Zaten son yıllarda, kaliteli iyi eğitim görmüş insan gücü istatistiklerine göre, Almanya ya gelenden çok terk eden olmaktadır. Nitekim IT konusunda, örneğin İş İstihbaratı, iş zekâsı konusunda kaliteli eleman ihtiyacı nedeniyle, Hint li yazılımcılara ABD deki gibi ‘Green Card’ vermeyi vaat ederek davet etmelerine rağmen pek gelen olmadı. Hint’ liler bile Amerika ve İngiltere’ yi tercih ettiler. 
Çin Almanya rekabeti pek yakında Alman sanayini çökertecektir. En önemli Alman patent ve markalarını önce davet edip sonra kopyalayarak çoğaltan ve hiçbir lisans ve patent ücreti ödemeyen Çin ekonomisine karşı Alman ekonomisi her geçen gün rekabet kabiliyetini kaybetmektedir. Almanya da yabancılar olmasa işsizlik ve iç tüketim daha da yükselir ve Alman ekonomisi kaliteli eğitimli eleman bulmakta zorlanır. Buna rağmen nankörlük ederek, Yabancı, özellikle de Türk ve Arap düşmanlığı yapmak, Alman idealizmine, Kant ın ülkesine yakışıyor mu? Ne oldu Kantsche Imperativ denilen, kendine yapılmasını istemediğini başkalarına yapma evrensel ahlak ilkesine? Ortaçağ hristiyanlığına dayanan insan ve kültür anlayışını öncü kültür ilan etmek ilkellik ve geriye dönüş değil midir? Angela Merkel ve Horst Seehofer, bizlere akılları fikirleri, kavrama güçleri varsa, Kant dan hegel den Goethe den Schiller den Schelling den bahsetsinler, ama hristiyanlık kültüründen değil! Alman idealizmi ile Hristiyanlık ve Hristiyanlığın insan kavramı ve anlayışı çok farklıdır. Birinde evrensel insan hakları ve kimseyi dışlamayan ahlaklılık ilkeleri, diğerinde ise engizisyon mahkemeleri, giyotin ve subyan çocuklara cinsel tecavüz yapmaktan çekinmeyen ahlaksız hristiyan kilise papazları öne çıkmaktadır. Acaba Angela Merkel ve Horst Seehofer hangisini öncü kültür ‘ Leitkultur’ örnek alınacak kültür olarak savunmaktadır?
Samimi ve inanmış, yüce Allah’ ın birliğinden ve onun elçisi Hz.Muhammed’ in Allah ın son hak peygamberi olduğundan başka, her gerçeği sorgulayan bir Müslüman olarak tüm dünyaya ilan ediyorum:
Kuran - ı Kerim, insanlığın ve bilimin gelebileceği en yüksek soyut bilgi ve kavram silsilesine sahiptir. Kuran da müspet bilim ve insan hakları ile çatışan hiçbir ilke, prensip kavram ve tavsiye de yoktur. Kavram derinliği olmayan, yüzeysel düşünenlerin kendi menfaatlerine uygun yanlış yorumları ve emperyalizm tarafından desteklenip türetilen sözde İslami devletlerin hiçbirinde(İran ve Türkiye dahil) , Hz. Muhammed’in evrensel mesajına, Kuran vahyine uygun faizsiz ve adil bir ekonomik ve sosyal hayat, felsefe ve medeniyet yoktur ve gerçek İslam bugünkü dünyada yaşanamamaktadır. 
Menfaatlerinin ve geçim derdinin esiri olmuş, hür olmayan, hür düşünemeyen, maddenin esiri ve kölesi olan insanlar (Kapitalizm) ile aklı olmayan insanların, makam ve mevkileri etnik kimlikleri dilleri ne olursa olsun, hiçbir dini sorumlulukları ve yükümlülükleri yoktur; çünkü onlar hiçbir zaman mutlak gerçeği kavrayıp, bilerek inanamazlar. Bilerek, salt ve müspet bilimlerin bilgi birikimi sonucunda, hiçbir zorlama ve kişisel menfaat düşüncesi olmaksızın, Tabiat’ ın yani Allah denilen tek Tanrının sonsuz çeşitlilik içindeki birliğine ve tekliğine, sonsuz gücüne inanmak, kendi rızası ile kabullenip iman etmek hayatta erişilebilecek en yüksek erdemdir, öncü ve önder kültürdür. Hristiyanlık ve kurumlaşmış hiçbir din öğretisi, din adamlarına dayanan kültür öncü ve önder kültür olamaz. Ancak mutlak bilgi ve gerçek sizi hürriyetinize kavuşturup insan yapabilir.
Prof.Dr.Mehmet Erdas Berlin, 14.10.2010
The earth is moving in elipse path steadily around itself and others, whatever and whoever stays lags behind, looses the contemporary attachment and performance. The leading and lagging of wealthy nations in their development process, depend up with complete causality on their knowledge and capital accumulation, especially reproduced in higher quality of their human capital. The brain-drain process from the rest of the world into developed countries is feeding the economic growth and scientific discoveries. Without the new inventions of further basic elements and materials, new patents and trademarks, enabling the funding of the innovation process through economic growth by market automation, conducting more research and development in their technology centers, international companies or universities, Germany, USA, Japan could not have been performed well up to 15.th of Sept.2008.
All science fiction stories are aiming at letting the mankind think of another pseudo reality, outside of natural laws. The nature is uniquely reproducing itself with all of its energy and natural resources infinetely. The increasing earth population against the destruction power of weapons produced to protect only the achieved wealth and growth on earth is threatening the existence of mankind on this uniquely infinite but limited earth.
Another financial crisis much more severe than the one in 2008 should be expected, unless redistribution of wealth and growth on earth happens under peace and concensus. Risk management and technology assessment processes should be based on reliable, high quality of data without any uncertainty or redundancies. The right decisions can only be taken relying upon up to date, precisely high data quality. The Business Intelligence tools can provide you with such valuable data, enabling clearly defined business processes based on master data management in financial and industrial decision making processes. The compettition between China and Russia against US, Europe and Japan on the value, stability and sustainibility of exchange rates could lead to more protection in world trade through punishing customs policies.
It can be said that decontrol and deregulation of the interest rates have been manipulated by energy prices and Exchange rates mostly in the past two decades and in the whole history of the capital accumulation. A new definition of interest rates on a complex time scale could accomplish the re-distribution of wealth and growth on earth, re-balancing or re-matching of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, as John M. Keynes has suggested.  we will briefly discuss the main economic functions of interest rates for the consumers, companies, sectors, national and internatiponal economies.
In classical economic theory, the interest rate is simply regarded as the price of capital or liquidity advantage, in a very similar analogy between the rate of exchange between goods and services, which contain an added value. In the case of money interest rate concept, the real money value amounts at a different time horizon are exchanged. In fact, money could be any material or good as long as it serves the functions of money. The speciality of the interest rate as a price of Money capital is the way in which the exchange event occurs between an amount of money today and another amount of money tomorrow. Consequently, the pure rate of interest is a time-dependent function of money or intertemporal price of money to money exchange at a different point in time scale. Therefore, the complex time scale has to be the main factor in the exchange of money against money without any additional value, therefore this time scale has to be complex, consisting of real and imaginary scales, accounting for both production and distribution of goods and services at the same time, such that the supply and demand functions, could be exactly matched at a certain point in future, without any excess or idle production capacity. 
The interest rate is simply defined as the price of capital in the capitalist economic system, but the interest rates, in comparison with the rates of profits, are meant to have the main determining role over the volume of investment, of savings, level of employment, the level of prices and the balance of payments, determining the capital accumulation process and capital stocks. Due to its intertemporal nature, the price of capital or  the complex interest rate is the single determining variable for the intertemporal allocation of time, energy and resources in the economy.(Malinvaud, 1969.). The complex interest rate mechanism as the price of capital, energy, time and resource available for production and consumption at two different points in time,  determines all the other economic decision variables and the level of investment in conjunction with productivity of the capital. But on the other hand complex interest rate determines the level of savings and all other timing and resource productivity preferences for all economic activities. The complex interest rate determines the aggregate demand and aggregate supply for all financial funds and available scarce economic resources in the economy. Finally, the complex interest rate as the price of capital is the main central determinant of productivity and time value of all economic activity in a period of time traded in the capital markets. The vital central importance of complex interest rate  as the price of capital in the capitalist economic system, prevents from monapol or oligopol markets, enabling all of the market players for free competition market automation.
In a free market economy, the interest rate is simply the price in the money and capital markets. There is no doubt that the
rate of interest is regarded as a price which performs the same function like the price of any good in its market.
In the literature numerous interest rate theories have been set up in order to explain why the rate of interest exists and how it
is determined. Most of the theories, especially earlier ones, depend on a single factor in the explanation of the interest rate
phenomenon. Adam Smith,in his ‘The Wealth of Nations’ explains that the reason for a lender charging interest for his money is because of the borrower making a profit out of his money. Thus, the interest rate of money is always a derivative revenue rate on complex time scale consisting of both the real and the imaginary components. It is the basic idea that interest is coupled to future profit expectations and its rate is determined proportionally to that of the profit. On basic questions about the existence, why the rate of interest exists and how it is determined, there are basically the abstinence theory, productivity theories and uses theory. These theories are classified as single cause theories of interest (Conard, 1959. p.30-40., Fisher, 1982. chp.2.) to justify the existence of the interest rate through the productivity argument of capital, and the interest rate determination is simply left to the supply and demand for funds as in any other commodity market in the economy.
The existing interest rate mechanism, ruling over the international Money and financial capital markets, can not measure any more the complexity of all economic activities in relation to scarcity of all resources regarding the limitations like the environmental boundary conditions, climate change, finite energy resources, lack of demandor the idle capacity of production, the capital productivity, liquidity, the cost of abstinence from capital and the profit maximization goal of capital. As you can see all economic activities require the availibility of capital, processing energy, labor, time, communication and transportation for both production and consumption. The final goal of production is consumption and social welfare. The monopolistic nature of interest rates mechanism leads to the idle capacity in periods of decades in capitalist system. This can be prevented by introducing the complex time scale in the definition of interest rates, instead of only real time scale, explaining only for real capital stock and solving the supply side problems, but we have to include the imaginary time scale for demand side, explaining for more innovation through productivity increase by fair distribution, social justice leading to more spendable income and demand forces, without idle capacities occurring as residual value after every decade.
The pride and the racist prejudice of German people against turkish and arabic ethnicity  has been based  mainly  on their values stemming from Islam. The Integration debate in Germany was fired up after Thilo Sarrazin has published his populist book, claiming that all social transfers in Germany are being spent for moslem minorities. The main social conflict of interest was due to  tightening job markets, the result of global financial crisis, leading to more higher jobless rates. What would you do, and how would you feel yourself, if you would be discriminated by the politicians in the society, where you spent your whole life, contributing to economic growth, losing your health?
One of the Leaders of German Coalition Government, the leader of the governing Party CSU in Germany , namely the Christian Social Union CSU, Horst Seehofer,  publicly announced that they do not want to have even any skilled workers and researchers (Fachkraefte in german )with arabic and turkish origin in Germany. What shoud that clear statement  mean, all of a sudden after Thilo Sarrazins logically inconsistent famous book? What are the consequences for 4 Million Moslems and their children living in Germany? If you are a moslem in Germany, you will be isolated, prejudiced and discriminated anyhow, but this was not publicly and clearly announced as a directive from a party leader up to now. It is always better to be sincere, telling your opinion directly to the public as a politician.
Thank you Mr.Seehofer! I have got afraid of living in Germany.Unless you burn people, you see their bloods, genes, values.. you never accept them as human beings with the same rights to live and co-exist peacefully in your country. I am going to tell my children not to go to Munich and work for companies in Bayern.  But are you conform with your German constitution, guaranteeing for all people living in Germany, the very basic human rights, ‘ Chancengleichheit’ and primus inter-pares?
Prof.Dr.Mehmet Erdas   Schlieperstr.75  13507 Berlin
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Erdas
Engineering Design & Services Outsourcing
Certified SAP ORACLE BI Consultant
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Erdas
Engineering Design & Services Outsourcing
Certified SAP ORACLE BI Consultant
Mit Thilo Sarrazin muss die Integrationspolitik neu durchdacht und ausgewertet werden. Wir Türken sind gegen İslam Klischees wie Kopftuch, Islam als Feindbild. Man behandelt uns nicht einmal wie die Hunde oder Halbaffen! Wer mich meine Identitaet nicht anerkennt, erkenne ich keine Leitkultur! Warum sollen wir Muslime wie die Christen sein und nicht umgekehret? ISlam ist der letzte abstrakteste Glaube mit direkter Verbindung zu Gott. Muslime brauchen keine Kirche Synagoge Kirche Moschee! Nur unser Herz ist unser Gebetsraum und unser Gehirn unser Logiksraum! Wir sind frei!
Prof.Dr.Mehmet Erdas, 03.09.2010
In my Ph.D thesis 1982, I referred to the balance of energy and financial markets over the interest rates mechanism. The idle overcapacity threat has been built since 1980s in the world economy. Iraq Wars and the rapid growth and development of BRIC economies disturbed the balance of energy and financial markets. The aggregate demand and supply on global scale can not be matched anymore through the interest rate mechanism of financial markets. The global financial markets crisis has put the banking industry and the flow of funds, investment banking in a collapse. The recovery of asset values and the rapid increase in unemployment in EU and USA; Greek debt crisis and the high ratio of debt to GNPs of UK, USA, Japan, Spain, Ireland, Portugal creates a new risk profile for the global banking industry. The consumer confidence stays low globally threatening the export oriented german economy. The Debt to be collected only in Europe amounts to 400 billion Euro.
A new power game is in being, which might lead to new tensions and regional wars in Balkan, Middle East and Far East. A new global threat of banking industry and uncontrolled deficit spending and financing of economies, the imbalance of economical power against military power, could probably lead to a global war. The history repeats itself, as long as the mankind resists to learning necessary lessons from history, failing to adapt themselves to the law of natural economical and financial selection, suggesting always the survival of the fittest (Charles Darwin), without any priority.
Turkey can play a very important power balancing role between East and West, North and South, by joining the BRIC Countries, just by keeping on Atatürk’s Foreign Policy of full independence and neutrality without USA dominated NATO membership. Turkey is a switching country in the Middle East, securing all of energy transportation lines to Europe.
If Turkey would be governed in a proper way, utilizing her scarce energy and natural resources, like Cobalt, Bor, Iron, Copper, Water, Coal etc. in a planned and optimized way for more health and educational progress of turkish population, the next stage would be the production of software and know-how intensive soft goods like computer programs, new web services, ERP-Enterprise resource planning, SOA-Service oriented architectures and CRM -Custumer relationship management software like SAP, Microsoft, ORACLE.
The production of technology needs more quality in education by more infrastructure investments like computer labs, Nanotechnology, Material Test and Development Labs at the Universities and Technology Institutes. The export of skilled people like computer and industrial engineers, mathematicians, physicists to world markets would bring more knowledge and wealth to Turkey. The amount of R&D investments are at a very low level, less than 3% of GDP as compared to developed countries.
The political and civilian social institutions in Turkey are not well organized, not very inefficient in increasing the quality of people in politics and higher decision making levels. Instead of using more modern business intelligence tools, the decision makers follow their intutions and their own non-verified qualitative risk profiles and preferences. This leads to inefficient use of resources and more loss in productive human capital in less-valued more energy consuming, labor intensive industries like textiles, metal processing, agriculture in rural areas.
The negative real capital accumulation, increasing unemployment rates, high current account deficit, worsening trade balance, much more imports than exports and decreasing industrial production in Turkey, could lead to a change in political power after the 12th September 2010.
The popularity of Justice and Development is decreasing after supporting the kurdish democratic movement leader Öcalan and PKK increasing disputes about Northern Iraq and the solution of separatist kurdish problem.
The FOREX exchange rates could rise again very sharply, leading to 1 USD =2,5-3 TL, distorting all import and export balance, increasing the current account deficit, worsening trade balance,  and decreasing the industrial production.
Since 60 years of democracy in Turkey, no other political party, has succeeded to be able to rule and keep political power steadily more than 10 years. This historical evidence implies that there will be probably a big power game after the elections in 2011. The increasing social tensions and the worsening of income distribution could lead to a civil war and separation of eastern Turkey, if security forces like military, police and justice could not keep the social peace and order in all over Turkey.
Prof.Dr.Mehmet Erdaş Berlin
Finance, production and sales are the controlling powers in World markets. Especially energy markets play a crucial role, such that Money, googs and services could be produced and consumed. The Final goal of Production is consumption,at all.
After the 1980’s the world economy faced a lack of aggregate demand. US Government started star wars projects and increased military spending for a few years more than 400 bio.US Dollar. US Economy was lacking more and more by deficit spending. On the other hand exploded the real estate speculations. Even jobless people could get mortgage financing of 400.000-500.000 USD worth houses. Federal reserve could not adjust and match aggregate demand and aggregate supply by using the interst rates mechanism, as John Maynard Keynes has suggested. The big imbalance and volatility in financial markets and real economy, a totally decoupling of finance from production and sales has occurred after 2000, leading to a global financial crisis in 2008, by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.
The globalisation and financial crisis are totally different concepts in scope, such that one implies the increasing global scale interdependancy of all economic actors in time and in their decision making, the other one implies the decoupling of financial markets, production and sales, i.e. demand and supply processes are more diverging than converging.
The future trends show that the Euro and US Dolar against other currencies are going to lose their dominant role. In order to be able to prevent this from happening, at least for a few decades more, the US intervention scenario in Irak and Afganistan, for keeping the energy markets coupled to US Dolar, by using military force. The US soldiers withdrawal from Irak, could lead to the new series of political conflicts between Arabs and Kurds, leading to the division of Irak. This would influence other economies in Middle East, causing new interventions of turkish Military into Irak, escalating the war in the region. Unless all OPEC countries sell and value their oil in world markets in US Dolar, US is going to lose its global power and deficit financing functions, leading to the collapse of US and world economy.
In the Euro zone, the debt servicing of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland is not guaranteed at all, although a 700 Bio.Euro support package has been made ready by the EU. The greek economy is facing a big threat, losing up to 70% of its markets growth potential. Joblessness increased in a global scale and and the consumer confidence has been lost. People in Europe are not trusting in even gold and they buy agricultural land in order to be able face the shortage of foods for a survival in the coming decades.
The increasing frequency of occurrence of natural desasters, like earthquakes, mansoon rains, causing flooding in India and Pakistan, Indonesia, China, leading to starvation of 20 Millions of people within a couple of days. The energy imbalance and climate change in the world, is threatening the survival of mankind on the planet earth. There is no other planet in the the space, with water and atmosphere, other than science –fiction movies, that could enable the same natural life on earth.
The growth strategies, profit maximization goal and interest rate mechanism are to be questioned and re-adjusted to new faire equilibriums. The mankind has to get used to consume less and protect the natural resources to enable the survival of next generations at all. Otherwise the nature is going to destroy itself and recreate and re-establish its balance and natural measures completely from the very beginning era of Adam and Eva.
Karl Marx, David Ricardo, Sylvio Gesell…. Have all pointed out to the monopoly forces inherent in the interest rate mechanism and profit maximization through growth strategy. Today, the production of any kind of goods and services is not a proble any more, but to sell and consume those goods and services through lack of demand is not possible any more, without redistribution of wealth in the world. This is the challenge of this age to capitalism. Either Redistribution or destruction through war and by nature itself.
The interest rate definition of todays economic and financial theories are completely obsolete, to match the aggregate demand and supply through socially faire redistribution. The real componen of interest rate, leading to classical physical capital accumulation process, has to be expanded and completed by an imaginary interst rate component, enabling the redistribution of wealth and natural resources in the whole world. Otherwise, the new measure and imbalance of power in the nature, accumulated through the many past centuries, thanks to selfish growth strategies and profit maximization goals of wild capitalism, is going to lead potentially into apocalypse, putting an end to civilization and survival of mankind. If the timing of nature should not be captured and measured by scientists at the right pace, there will be no chance to recover for survival of mankind. It would be too late even to start a nuclear war.
After the globalisation and the latest financial crisis processes in US Dolar and Euro zone, the necessity of introducing new interest concepts for wealth re-distribution, new international institutional infrastructure replacing the old IBRD, IMF, UN, IFC …and a new international monetary system instead of US Dolar and Euro could not be established soon, by common wisdom and concensus of main player nations in peace , it would be too late to prevent a third world war, starting from Middle East, Far East, or Southern Asia. The Cold war era was more stable than today.




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